James Forsyth James Forsyth

Don’t expect Budget fireworks from George Osborne

Don’t expect ‘fireworks’ from the Budget one of Osborne’s closest political allies told me this week. Ahead of the Budget on Wednesday the Chancellor finds himself hemmed in by the EU referendum, fraying Tory discipline and the worsening global economic situation, I say in my Sun column this week.

A Budget four years out from a general election is normally when a government takes some risks. But I doubt Osborne will be doing much of that on Wednesday. First, he doesn’t want to do anything to make the EU referendum more difficult for the government to win—the intensity with which David Cameron is campaigning reveals how worried he is about losing it. Second, Cameron and Osborne know that they can’t rely on Tory MPs at the moment. With almost half the party on the other side to them in the EU referendum, the usual rules of party discipline just don’t apply so now is not a good time to try and push through any controversial measures.

But it isn’t just the EU referendum that is restricting Osborne’s room for manoeuvre.

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