Ross Clark Ross Clark

Does Warwick’s Omicron modelling make restrictions more likely?

(Photo: Getty)

Two weeks ago, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and Imperial College both published modelling showing frightening scenarios if the government did not react to the Omicron variant by imposing immediate restrictions on our day to day lives. The former suggested that hospitalisations could peak at 7,190 a day in January in its most pessimistic scenario; the latter was reported as suggesting that deaths might peak at 5,000 a day in January. Both figures, however, were made on the assumption that Omicron was every bit as virulent as the Delta variant. Since then, several UK studies have suggested that this is not the case, with data showing it is between 20 per cent and two thirds less likely to land us in hospital. A South African study puts it higher, at 80 per cent less risk.

Today, however, another of Sage’s modelling teams has modelled a scenario which does assume that Omicron is less severe than Delta.

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