Does the Somerton victory mark the return of the Lib Dems?

Set against the expectation of a triple by-election defeat, last night will be seen as cause for optimism by some Tories. Labour failing to take Uxbridge and Ruislip is an unexpected boost for Rishi Sunak – and a result that will be seized upon by Keir Starmer opponents, not least those in the Labour party. Given the Boris baggage and the national polling, this is a seat Labour should have taken and probably with a reasonable majority.

However, there is still plenty to glean from yesterday that should concern the Tories. Losing a seat like Selby is alarming, particularly doing so to Labour by a margin of more than 4,000 votes. The Lib Dems romping home with a 10,000+ majority in Somerton and Frome is also deeply worrying to Sunak and his team. Lib Dem leader Ed Davey said the result shows the party is ‘firmly back’. He’s right.

Somerton and Frome was a Lib Dem seat from 1997 until 2015, albeit a seat they always won with tiny majorities, barely staving off the Tories at each election (their majorities from ’97 onwards: 130, 668, 882, 1,817).