Does anyone still believe in low taxes?

Speculation over which taxes the Chancellor will slash or, more likely, hike at tomorrow’s spring statement seems to have settled on two areas. First, a cut to fuel duty and, second, an increase in National Insurance thresholds, a way of tweaking the already announced tax hike to reduce the burden on the poorest. 

On the first point, a cut in fuel duty could cost the Treasury around £2.5 billion a year (although the government is unlikely to get much political credit if Sunak does go down this route given how quickly energy costs are rising). On the second, it looks almost certain that the Chancellor will proceed with his planned 2.5 point rise in NI contributions, despite today’s data revealing borrowing is on track to undershoot by about £26 billion. The NI hike is expected to raise £12 billion per year – meaning the British public will be paying more tax when Sunak sits down at the despatch box than we were when he stood up.