The Tories are addressing welfare reform too late

The launch of the Conservative manifesto later this morning will dominate today’s headlines. But it’s worth reflecting, before the full details are released, on how we ended up with an earlier-than-expected election. In addition to ministers’ fear that the small boats figures would rise this summer – and flights to Rwanda would be grounded – there was also growing concern that the economic data wouldn’t tell the good news story they wanted to take into an autumn election. Today’s labour market update complicates that theory. 

The Labour market is still cooling, but slowly. Unemployment rose again, to 4.4 per cent between February and April this year: this takes the rate to its highest point since autumn 2021, but it still sits at a historically low rate. Meanwhile job vacancies fell again – by around 12,000 on the quarter – but still sit just above 900,000, well above pre-pandemic levels.