Despite the Brown bounce, the Tories are still ahead by double-digits

Glenrothes was undoubtedly a triumph for Gordon Brown. It has restored his authority in the Labour party and ensured that the media narrative of the Brown comeback will continue. But the new ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph shows just how much of a climb Brown still has: the Tories are on 43, up one, and Labour on 30. According to Conservative Home’s calculation, this would result in a Tory majority of 80. 

When you consider that the reality of recession has yet to really hit the electorate you realise just how weak Brown’s position still is despite Thursday’s win and the good headlines he has received in the past few weeks. There is no doubt that the Tories have not been as effective an opposition as they should have been in the past few week—thanks to both a certain confusion about how to respond to the financial crisis and the whole silly Corfu business—but they are still comfortably ahead.