India is not preparing for war, but picking up the newspapers in Delhi you could be forgiven for thinking otherwise. For weeks, the papers have been blowing the horns of retribution against Islamabad after a convoy of police officers was rammed by a suicide bomber in Kashmir. Since both sides acquired nuclear weapons, neither had sent a warplane to bomb the other — until last week. Friends in Europe send me anxious messages: isn’t it time to leave Delhi while I still can? The Americans I meet are all a bit jumpy. A couple I chat with at the Khan Market doubt the US Embassy can rescue them if all goes off the rails — or, as they say, ‘Fubar’ (‘Fouled’ up beyond all recognition). Food and water are being stockpiled. After Pakistan downs two Indian jet-fighters, the hysteria notches up a gear and nuclear apocalypse is just around the corner.
Fortunately, I’m spending three days in the company of India’s foreign policy intelligentsia, who are more relaxed. Pakistan, they say, has been a constant irritation since 1947 and will remain one after 2047. The two countries are locked in a ‘stable disequilibrium’: both have forces that want Indo-Pak relations to be on the edge, but not to go over it. For the retired foreign secretaries and ambassadors at my conference, this is a ritual rattling of sabres. It’s Groundhog Day.
Narendra Modi, mind you, is anything but calm. The Indian premier has been giving fiery speeches in the past weeks, promising revenge against the terrorists, including those ‘aiding and abetting them’ (read: Pakistan). He’s soaking the country in stories of soldierly virtues. For him, this is ‘New India’ — a country of muscular Hindu patriots with a big-dog attitude, not afraid of punching an annoying neighbour in the face.
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