This was a landmark week in this long election campaign. It was the first this year in which two pollsters (YouGov and Lord Ashcroft) each posted a Conservative lead outside of the margin of error. A 4 per cent lead for the blues may not sound like much – but it represents the largest Conservative lead on YouGov in more than three years.
Indeed, of the 12 polls published so far this March, Labour have led in just 4 – compared to 27 leads out of 39 throughout February. It may be nothing. But I somehow suspect otherwise.
If you said to me following the 2010 election that Ukip would have been on 15 per cent, the Liberal Democrats would have collapsed to single figures – and still, Labour would fail to have a poll lead – I wouldn’t have believed you. The extent to which the partisan fundamentals favour Labour are difficult to overstate.
In truth, however, it isn’t just that Ed Miliband has failed to seal the deal with the British public – his party would seemingly rather he was brushed under the table entirely – leaving the question as to the occupant of 10 Downing Street unanswered until roughly 8 May.
Comments
Join the debate for just $5 for 3 months
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for $5.
UNLOCK ACCESS Just $5 for 3 monthsAlready a subscriber? Log in