Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Dave’s going down

Drift and disillusionment will lose Cameron the next election

issue 06 October 2012

By now, it will be clear even to David Cameron that he is on course to lose the next general election. The British electoral system always was rigged against the Conservatives, and his hopes for changing that were dashed by Nick Clegg before the summer holidays, when he scuppered Tory plans for boundary reform. All parties are returning to a new reality: the economic recovery has evaporated, and with it the Tories’ chances of winning next time. An unprepared Labour Party is cruising towards power, under a leader who has just held a surprisingly successful party conference. Every bookmaker now agrees: Cameron is heading for a crash.

The Tory party conference, which starts in Birmingham this weekend, ought to be a crisis meeting. How did things get to this stage? Is coalition the problem, or just a convenient excuse? Where is George Osborne’s growth strategy and might this be a good time to produce one? But the Tory conference is not really about the Tory party any more.

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