Ever wondered what would happen to the British economy if net immigration were slashed to zero? Well today’s ‘Fiscal Sustainability Report’ from the number crunchers at the Office for Budget Responsibility provides a glimpse of what such a future might look like — and it is a grim picture indeed.
They’ve put together projections for the economy — and the public finances — all the way to 2062. Of course such long-term predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt. As Pete says over at ConservativeHome, ‘today’s OBR figures will probably bear as much comparison to the 2060s as the Jetsons will’. But the OBR don’t just produce one forecast for the shape of things to come, but several, based on different assumptions about productivity growth, ageing and immigration — allowing us to see how different policies would affect the economy.
Take the national debt, for example. Here’s how the OBR’s central projection (which assumes net migration of 140,000 a year on average) compares to its high migration (260,000 a year) and zero migration ones:
In a future with no net migration, we’d be looking back longingly on the days when the public debt was ‘only’ 65 per cent of GDP.
Get Britain's best politics newsletters
Register to get The Spectator's insight and opinion straight to your inbox. You can then read two free articles each week.
Already a subscriber? Log in
Comments
Join the debate for just £1 a month
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for £3.
UNLOCK ACCESS Just £1 a monthAlready a subscriber? Log in