The vaccines are a game-changer: Covid is losing its sting

It seems all but impossible to convince government scientists of the wisdom of proceeding with the final lifting of Covid restrictions on 21 June. No matter how much progress is made, officials seem to find a new reason to delay — a new variant or some similar development always pops up. The Indian variant has now become the dominant strain in Britain and our cases are rising. The question is whether that should change things.

When the government’s roadmap was agreed, with 21 June as the end date, scientific advisers on the Sage committee drew up five scenarios for hospitalisations. None of them imagined that by this stage the figure would be as low as it stands now. Cases are rising — but cases are not translating into hospitalisations as they once did. That is to say: the vaccines are working as expected. Covid is losing its sting. The number of people in hospital is below half that anticipated by the most optimistic Sage scenario.

If vaccinations have succeeded in decoupling new cases of infection from the levels of serious disease, we can no longer be said to be in the grips of a pandemic — more in a situation of endemic background infection.