It seems all but impossible to convince government scientists of the wisdom of proceeding with the final lifting of Covid restrictions on 21 June. No matter how much progress is made, officials seem to find a new reason to delay — a new variant or some similar development always pops up. The Indian variant has now become the dominant strain in Britain and our cases are rising. The question is whether that should change things.
When the government’s roadmap was agreed, with 21 June as the end date, scientific advisers on the Sage committee drew up five scenarios for hospitalisations. None of them imagined that by this stage the figure would be as low as it stands now. Cases are rising — but cases are not translating into hospitalisations as they once did. That is to say: the vaccines are working as expected. Covid is losing its sting. The number of people in hospital is below half that anticipated by the most optimistic Sage scenario.
There will be huge pressure on the Prime Minister to change his mind and pause the lifting before 21 June
If vaccinations have succeeded in decoupling new cases of infection from the levels of serious disease, we can no longer be said to be in the grips of a pandemic — more in a situation of endemic background infection. Unless we have set ourselves the impossible task of eliminating all Covid-related illness, at some point we will have to call a halt and say that we can live with the problem — and that we can no longer delay the repair our society and economy so urgently needs. There are millions out of work on furlough: it is time to let them get on with their lives.
As it stands, the Prime Minister still appears to be confident of going ahead with the final stage of his roadmap back to normality in just over a fortnight’s time.
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