This week, the government has published a better measure of Covid-19 deaths by widening it out from hospital deaths to all settings. But what about those who have died without having had a test? Does the ‘improved’ estimate go far enough?
I think the simple answer is no. The mortality data is rising at a rate that suggests many more are dying who have not been tested. But there are ways of estimating and, as the former head of health analysis at the ONS, I have conducted my own study.
As of Wednesday 29 April, my figure is 45,290 deaths linked to Covid-19 in Great Britain. This is far higher than the 26,097 issued by the Government that day. Let me explain how I arrive at my estimate.
Daily and weekly data
The mortality data is rising at a rate that suggests many more are dying who have not been tested
To assess what is happening at any specific time, it is better to use the number of deaths based on when they occurred.
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