Could Trump save Ukraine?

One thousand days into Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, three facts seem to be evident. First, Russia is losing. It is using its soldiers like human ammunition, burning through its economic reserves and mortgaging its future to Beijing. Second, Ukraine is losing faster than Russia. Ukraine’s forces are beleaguered along a too-long front and increasingly reliant on what looks like press-ganging for recruits. The country’s energy infrastructure is 80 per cent damaged or destroyed. The third fact: Donald Trump’s election is throwing all the old assumptions about the war into doubt.

Chief of the Defence Staff Sir Tony Radakin’s observation that the last month was the bloodiest yet for the Russians, with casualties amounting to about double their monthly recruitment rate, underlines the degree to which Moscow is working to a timetable. Even with the equivalent of a division of North Koreans – whose participation in the fighting has yet to be confirmed – this is unsustainable in the long run.