The Sunday Times set the cat among the pigeons over the weekend with a report claiming that Theresa May ‘may surrender over customs union’ after a secret wargaming exercise concluded that Brexiteers including Michael Gove and David Davis would not resign if the UK stayed in a customs union with the EU. The paper quoted a No. 10 source as saying Downing Street ‘will not be crying into our beer’ if parliament forces the government’s hand.
Unsurprisingly the report has managed to get Brexiteers into a spin. Staying in the customs union is seen as poison to a large chunk of Brexit-backing MPs as it means the UK would have great difficulty signing trade deals with other countries. Just last month, the Australian high commissioner said such an arrangement would make the UK ‘irrelevant’. While Tory backbenchers were quick to go on the offensive so too did several Cabinet ministers. Sajid Javid took to social media to explain why the UK must leave the customs union – and he was backed up by one Michael Gove. Downing Street have since briefed lobby journalists that there will be no climbdown – insisting that the UK will leave the customs union.
No-one really doubts that Theresa May’s Brexit plan involves leaving the customs union. Where the doubt starts, is regarding what she will do if the EU refuses her Irish border solutions and she is faced with a choice of ‘no deal’ or a deal which involves staying in the customs union. The backstop May agreed to means that if no alternative ‘solution’ to the Irish border is found the UK stays in the customs union. So far, no such solution has been found – Brussels has found fault with every alternative the UK side has put forward. This plays into the fears of Brexiteers who were suspicious of the backstop to begin with – if Brussels’ ideal scenario is the backstop option why would they bother to compromise on another solution? If they do refuse and May then walks away from the talks the likely drop in the pound and concerned statements from big business would make her position very difficult to maintain.
Adding to that is the fact that Parliament could force her hand regardless of a acceptable solution being found. Next month there will be a vote on the customs union – thanks to an amendment which aims to tie the government’s hands so they must form one with the EU. The government are so worried about this vote that they have delayed it for as long as possible. In order to win it, May must convince potential Tory rebels like Nicky Morgan to back the government’s plan. Right now, that looks like a hard sell.
This is why May is under pressure to turn that vote into a confidence issue. By making it a matter of confidence in May’s leadership it would raise the stakes – and many Brexiteers think it would dissuade enough Remain MPs from rebelling. Would they really vote against the government if it gave way to a Jacob Rees-Mogg premiership (something far worse than May in many Remainer eyes) or a Corbyn government?
Given the obstacles ahead, it’s actually little wonder that May’s team may have engaged in a wargaming exercise on what would happen if things didn’t go to plan. But that doesn’t mean their supposed conclusion is correct. If May were to climbdown on the customs union, the European Research Group – the Brexit campaign group chaired by Mogg – would see red and most likely table a ‘no confidence’ vote. Boris Johnson would most likely resign – and given his tweet yesterday it’s hard to see how Gove – however much he revels being back in the ‘in crowd’ – could justify staying on. Subsequent calls of ‘Brexit betrayal’ would follow and the public – much more weighted in favour of Brexit than Parliament – would get the faint whiff of a stitch-up.
This scenario seems far from ideal. It follows that May’s best chance of staying on and a successful Brexit rests on winning that Commons vote and showing Brussels that the backstop she agreed to is not acceptable after all. If she can’t do both of these things, then whichever path she chooses will be a very dangerous one indeed.
Now listen to Katy talk about the latest on the customs union with the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush and Spectator Podcast Editor, Cindy Yu:
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