Katy Balls Katy Balls

Could there be a Tory upset in North Shropshire?

(Getty)

As the government turns its attention to the new Covid variant, the ramifications of the Owen Paterson sleaze row are not quite done yet. After a difficult few weeks for the Prime Minister and his team in 10 Downing Street, Boris Johnson’s approval ratings have fallen both with the general public and Tory members. The latest ConservativeHome poll puts Johnson in negative ratings for the second time since the last election among the Tory grassroots — on -17.2.

In a way, it’s hardly surprising Johnson’s standing has fallen given the combination of problems facing the government — from tax rises to small boats and the Paterson row. The question is, will it hurt the Tories at the ballot box? There are two by-elections on the horizon that the Tories are on paper predicted to hold. The first is Old Bexley and Sidcup on 2 December — after James Brokenshire passed away — and the second is North Shropshire on 16 December in the wake of Owen Paterson’s decision to quit the Commons over a report finding him in breach of lobbying rules.

When it comes to the Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election, Tories on the ground are cautiously optimistic about their prospects (it had a Tory majority of 18,952 in the 2019 election) even if there is some grumbling on the doorstep.

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