Imagine that you’re a Tory MP who wants to vote against the government today – and you’re going to be deselected if you do. What do you do about the next general election?
Do you stand as a Gaukeward squad independent? Do you do a Phillip Lee and move over to the Lib Dems? Or, like Justine Greening, give up on Westminster altogether?
The answer, and what Boris Johnson’s deselection threat means to potential rebel MPs, is complex and highly dependent on the political outlook of each MP’s seat.
For some MPs, Boris Johnson’s threat is very real, and potential rebels will have chosen to walk back from the brink today to prevent their careers being cut short. While some Scottish MPs in heavily Remain seats, predicting they will certainly be defeated by the SNP irrespective of their vote today, may have decided they would prefer to go down fighting for Boris and party in the hope of being selected for a seat somewhere else in the future – further south.
But to others, the threat might seem somewhat blunt.
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