Yesterday, the firm I work for, J.L. Partners, released a poll showing a 12-point lead for Labour over the Conservatives. This gap between the parties is much narrower than other polling companies are predicting – with several other polls showing a 20 point plus lead for Labour. Our poll still shows that Labour is heading for victory, but it has already been seized on by the Conservatives as a sign that they are still in contention in this election campaign.
What explains the difference in these polls? And could the election in fact be closer than many think?
To understand how we have arrived at this result, you also have to understand the more nuanced features of this election. I have heard from countless activists on the doorstep from every party that voter apathy and indecision is a significant issue in this election. For every staunch Labour supporter, or dedicated Conservative, there is a stubborn group of voters who simply haven’t decided how they’re going to vote.
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