Could Russia lose the war in Donbas?

We face a serious dilemma as the Battle of the Donbas begins.

The idea that the Russian army remains a powerful, effective force capable of breaking through Ukrainian lines and encircling forces in the Donbas remains widespread. It is regularly claimed that now the Russians have shortened their supply lines, concentrated and rebuilt their forces, and appointed a bloodthirsty war criminal as their commander they will show us what they are capable of. And, it is claimed that the Russians must seize the Donbas and have a major victory by May 9, so that Vladimir Putin can stage a victory day parade then in Moscow.

But what if the Russian forces haven’t improved since the beginning of the Ukraine war? So far the Russians have excelled at blowing things up, shooting civilians, and making incremental advances sporadically. Early signs of the Battle of the Donbas show that these specialties remain honed. Even though the battle was declared open on April 18 (when the Russians started a large artillery barrage in the Donbas) Russian advances since have been slow and halting.