Could Iran shift to dynastic rule when Khamenei dies?

Who will rule Iran after Ali Khamenei? The question is being asked with increasing frequency and concern as the Supreme Leader approaches his 85th birthday amid rumours of ill health, and it will be raised again on 1 March, when Tehran holds elections to the parliament and the Assembly of Experts, the body which will determine his successor.

Successions in dictatorships, or in Iran’s case an oppressive theocracy, are fraught with danger. Uncertainty and instability, with the prospect of great violence, are priced in. Throw in an illegal nuclear weapons programme, the growing risk of all-out confrontation with Israel and Tehran’s sponsorship of the ‘axis of resistance’ (or Islamist terrorist groups, take your pick) across the Middle East, and the stakes are extremely high. Add 40 per cent inflation, soaring unemployment and healthcare costs, a housing crisis and a general stampede for the exit, and the sense of crisis only deepens.