The end of the Cold War offered the former communist countries the chance to live a western way of life. But it also brought back what was known as the ‘nationalities question’, so long suppressed by Soviet power. We in Britain think little about this. We can easily see why the slowdown in western arms supplies threatens Ukraine, but not why it spreads such confusion among Nato allies. It is because any retreat by the United States forces Europeans to make frightening choices. The 20th century showed that European powers were unable to resolve their own conflicts without American help. Post-war, the European Community did its bit, but the real protector was America, via Nato. Now it might not be. Putin’s Russia could exploit this – a coup in Moldava, perhaps; a declaration of independence by a Russian-speaking town in the Baltic states – to advance his imperial mission. Who would then lead the resistance? Economic and geographical logic says Germany, but Germany is the most confused of the lot.

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