Could Belarus join forces with Russia in Ukraine?

Next week Putin is due to meet Alyaksandr Lukashenka, self-proclaimed president of Belarus, for the sixth time since the invasion of Ukraine. This will also be the first time in three years that they have met in Belarus.

Much hooha is usually made by the Russian and Belarusian press of their meetings. There is always a ‘happy families’-style photoshoot: Lukashenka towering over Putin, grasping his hand in his meaty fist, looking like Laurel and Hardy’s grotesque reincarnation. According to official readouts, their long meetings tend to cover a variety of mundane topics: agricultural output, the state of their economies, general commitments of mutual support.

These meetings are, in themselves, nothing special – they have been a facet of Putin and Lukashenka’s relationship for many years. But this meeting will be significant for several reasons.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, speculation has been rife as to whether Belarus would join the war. Lukashenka has supported Putin, allowing him to transport troops and weaponry through the country and even permitting the Russian forces to launch long-range missiles at Kiev from Belarusian territory.