Close the deal

It is becoming painfully clear that on Tuesday the House of Commons will be asked to vote on an EU withdrawal bill that is almost entirely the same as the one defeated by 230 votes in January. Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General, is seeking to guarantee that Britain will never be trapped in the backstop. If he succeeds, Brexiteers, whatever their wider misgivings, should hold their noses and vote for Theresa May’s deal.

It will be tempting for MPs who are seeking a proper break with the EU to repeat their rebellion. May’s deal means Britain will, for two years, be an EU member in all but name: paying all of the money and obeying the directives while undergoing (at least) two more years of Brexit talks. Leaving without a deal, which remains the default option, would certainly be disruptive in the short term, but nowhere near as bad as forecast. Even Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, has had to accept his earlier warnings were vastly overblown. But there is no one to lead Britain through a no-deal Brexit and not enough MPs to support it.

This is what Brexiteers have to accept. We have a prime minister whose authority is shot, and who is trying to survive one week at a time. She has already been forced to concede that, in the event of her deal being voted down next week, MPs will be given a vote on whether to request an extension to Article 50 or proceed with no deal. Given the woeful failure to prepare for this option and the fact the vast majority of MPs voted Remain, it’s likely parliament will ask her to negotiate an extension. Or, rather, beg for an extension. The terms the EU offers may well be humiliating. And May would likely agree, given that the alternative would be the no deal Brexit she is not prepared to pursue.