China’s ‘soft siege’ of Taiwan

‘There is only one China in the world,’ Wang Wenbin, the spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, declared at a press conference late last month. ‘Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory.’ The previous day, on 23 May, Beijing carried out major military exercises around the island under the title ‘Joint-Sword 2024A.’ The Chinese Communist party (CCP) said it wanted to practise how to ‘seize power’ in Taiwan, and to ‘punish’ its new leader, Lai Ching-te, and his supporters in the US.

J-16 aircraft and Type 052D destroyers – some of China’s best military assets – led the exercises, surrounding Taiwan and practising bombing runs. In recent months, as China’s deployment of fighter jets around Taiwan has become more frequent, there’s been a growing sense that Beijing is seriously preparing for conflict.

China doesn’t know how Taiwan might resist – and how much assistance it might receive

The CCP has long said the island will eventually be unified with the mainland. The military manoeuvres around Taiwan ‘looked like a rehearsal’ for an invasion, said Admiral Samuel Paparo, the commander of the US Indo-Pacific Fleet. ‘We watched them. We took note. We learned from them. And they helped us prepare for the future.’

A week later, at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, China’s defence minister, Dong Jun, himself a former naval commander, emphasised the repercussions for the US of getting involved: ‘Anyone who dares to separate Taiwan from China will only end up in self-destruction.’

Still, many military analysts think that a full-blown invasion of Taiwan by China remains unlikely.

‘Every year for three years, a new Chinese defence minister has come to Shangri-La,’ one senior US official said after Dong’s speech. ‘And every year, they’ve given a speech at complete odds with the reality of the PLA’s [People’s Liberation Army’s] coercive activity across the region. This year was no different.