China is not as strong as it appears

The theory that the pandemic began with a leak from a research laboratory in Wuhan is rapidly gaining currency. Since Matt Ridley’s cover piece for The Spectator last week, Joe Biden has ordered US intelligence agencies to ‘re-double their efforts’ and report to him within 90 days on the origins of Covid. The US administration has made it clear that the various intelligence agencies are split on whether they believe the virus is natural or man-made.

It is doubtful whether the US agencies will be able to come to a conclusion with any great confidence. Definitive evidence is unlikely to emerge. But, as Ridley pointed out, the more time that passes without evidence that the virus jumped from an animal to a human, the more the balance of probabilities tends towards the theory that the virus was man-made and accidentally released. If this is what happened, it would explain Beijing’s furious and disproportionate reaction to Australia’s call for an independent inquiry into the origins of the virus in April last year.

For its part, the UK government remains committed to a further World Health Organisation study of whether the disease came from animals or not. In recent days, it has been striking how many people in Westminster and Whitehall now think the lab leak theory is the most plausible explanation. But even if evidence was discovered that proved beyond reasonable doubt that the virus did escape, it is not clear what the free world would do about it.

Donald Trump used to claim that China should pay reparations for the damage Covid has done to the world economy. That is not going to happen. No major western country has an interest in getting the reparations debate going.