Can you still afford to eat out?

Many of us will remember, misty-eyed, how things changed around the turn of the century. How Britain ceased to be a nation brutalised by rationing and rissoles and instead blossomed into a utopia of celebrity chefs, endless food TV and a population seemingly willing and able to eat out most nights of the week. We no longer regarded ourselves as poor cousins to European nations with ‘cuisines’ – hell, Michelin stars glittered from every orifice. We had the uncalibrated zealotry of converts.

In the years following the pandemic, UK hospitality came blinking back into the light, adopted a collective fixed grin and the can-do attitude of small businesspeople, and did some amazing things while trying to get back to that prelapsarian state of glory. But although massive government support helped, the lockdowns changed the hospitality scene for ever. It’s taking us all a long time to accept but, depending on how you look at it, the pandemic either screwed things up or burst an overinflated bubble. Either way (or a bit of both), it is becoming apparent that the change is permanent.

Why am I convinced? Three things.

The first is cost. Rents for hospitality venues have been ratcheting up remorselessly for a long time. That won’t change. Food prices, which rocketed during and after the pandemic, will not come back down in the foreseeable future either. Arguably they were too low in the first place. It seems clear that we haven’t been paying farmers enough for their produce to keep them in business, let alone make their efforts sustainable. And if you know anyone who thinks power and water companies are going to drop their prices, tell me and I’ll sell them London Bridge.

Second, the cost of staff in restaurants won’t come back down.