Is Jeremy Corbyn’s steaming ahead in the Labour leadership contest? Is he going to win on first preferences alone? The best quantitate answers we have come from two YouGov polls conducted for the Times — one in July and another last week. The first poll put Corbyn 17 points ahead of his nearest rival on first preferences and six points ahead in the final round. In the second poll, Corbyn was 31 points ahead on first preferences and 14 points in the final round.
Can these polls be trusted? Given that YouGov, like all the other pollsters, called the general election incorrectly, scepticism is rife in Westminster about any polling. On the World at One today, Peter Kellner of YouGov pointed out his company correctly called the Scottish referendum, the last London Mayoral election and 2010 Labour leadership contest and his pollsters are the best thing to judge the state of play:
‘I don’t think anybody seriously says that Jeremy Corbyn, up to a week ago at any rate, was doing far better than anybody expected and was on first preferences out in the lead.
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