Ross Clark Ross Clark

Can we trust economic models?

Forecasters almost never get it right

Rishi Sunak shared a delightful moment of honesty on the Today programme on Thursday. Mishal Husain asked him how households will cope if, as the Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast, energy bills rise by a further £830 a year – on top of the rises already due to take effect in April. No, no, no, said the Chancellor, you can’t believe the OBR forecast on energy prices: ‘They just take what the market expectation is at a given time, and since they closed their forecast actually the forecast for energy bills in the autumn has come down by £400.’

It was a fair point. Except, if the Chancellor doesn’t think he can trust OBR forecasts for energy prices six months in advance, why did he, in his spring statement yesterday, reel out the OBR forecasts for economic growth for up to five years ahead? He told us, for example, perfectly straight-faced that the OBR thinks the economy will grow by 1.7

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