Can Ukraine’s army survive its deserter crisis?

Not since the summer of the 2022 invasion have Russian troops been making more progress in Ukraine. Last month alone, they took almost 200 square miles in the Donetsk region. Just 15 miles now separate the Russian forces from entering the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. If Russia succeeds, a sixth region will be swallowed by hostilities. 

What’s changed? Russia’s ranks are swelling with highly paid contractors and fresh North Korean reinforcements, while Ukraine’s forces are thinning fast. Desertions are adding to crippling manpower shortages. Officially, some 90,000 Ukrainian soldiers have deserted (almost half of them this year), but the unofficial number is much higher. Desertion is becoming a crisis. Unless it’s addressed, no ‘victory plan’ will halt the Russian advances.

The number of deserters has become so unmanageable that in August Ukraine passed a law forgiving soldiers who went AWOL for the first time as long as they agreed to come back. This has had a calamitous effect on discipline, essentially giving men permission to flee.