Wales has not been the source of good electoral tidings for the Conservatives for a very long time. The party last won a general election here in ’59 – that’s 1859. Since then, Wales has had successive lengthy eras of Liberal and then Labour dominance, with the Conservatives rarely able to mount a serious challenge. The last person to defeat Labour in a general election in Wales was the Liberal, David Lloyd George – just after he led Britain to victory in world war one. Since then, Labour have come first in both votes and seats in the last 26 successive general elections.
For a while, early in the 2017 campaign, it looked as if things would be different. The first two Welsh polls of the campaign gave the Conservatives significant leads over Labour, apparently putting them on course for substantial gains. But then Labour managed to turn things around decisively and ended up gaining three seats from the Welsh Conservatives, rather than losing ground.
What are the chances, then, of Wales making any contribution to a parliamentary majority for Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019? If the Tories are to win a majority in the Commons, they may need plenty of seats in Wales.
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