Some thoughts on the arrival in office of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, based on his first speech, his first appointments and some conversations with people in different parts of the Conservative party and Whitehall today.
These are not all my own predictions; some belong to others. But they’re under my name, so I’ll be happy to answer for them when – and if – they’re proven wrong:
1. A no-deal exit from the EU is much more likely than financial markets currently imply, and much more likely to become the de facto object of UK government policyJohnson’s speech gave him very, very little room for manoeuvre over Brexit. As his first act, he’s committed to leaving on October 31. For all his talk of seeking a “new deal” with the EU, his rejection of the “undemocratic” backstop and overt threat to withhold the “£39 billion” are clear pointers to the day when he – no doubt with theatrical reluctance and heavy heart – accepts that “Brussels” will not budge and so Britain must leave without a deal.
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