Can the Tories avoid oblivion?

Another day, another terrible poll for the Tories – the latest YouGov survey records support for the parties at Labour 46 per cent, Conservative 20 per cent, Reform 14 per cent, Lib Dem 7 per cent, Green 7 per cent. So far, so normal for our beleaguered governing party – even if Reform has nudged up another point to its record-ever showing. Six points between the Cons and Reform looks to me like the sort of margin that could be wiped out altogether were Nigel Farage to take the helm of the challenger party.

The Labour lead and vote share is so commanding that the current response of many Tory MPs – just to grimly await a career-terminating encounter with the British electorate and to start ‘putting out feelers’ for alternative employment – would seem quite logical. However, if you dig down into the tables of data, there is another reading of this poll.