Can ‘Teflon Trump’ survive his biggest challenge yet?

At the beginning of the year, the odds on president Donald Trump winning re-election this November were 60-40 in his favour. After all, the rule is that the incumbent wins when the U.S. economy is in rock solid shape. Americans react to job growth like bees react to honey: with excitement and appreciation. It was a big reason why Ronald Reagan swept the country with a 49-state win in 1984 and why Bill Clinton won a second term with a healthy margin in 1996. Precedent suggests that regardless of his long-winded (some would say, nutty) press conferences, grievance-filled Twitter account, and impeachment asterisk, Trump would have a very good chance at continuing the trend.

All of that is now out the window. The coronavirus epidemic that continues to claim the lives of thousands of Americans every week has cratered the economy, jeopardised his electoral position in battleground states like Michigan and