Can Starmer control 450 unruly MPs?

It doesn’t matter how loyal a candidate is. Once elected, all MPs (to a greater or lesser extent) conclude they have won their seat because of their unique qualities and personal vision. When they look in the mirror, many will see a future prime minister. Almost every backbench MP believes they are one reshuffle away from ministerial office.

Managing 450 MPs is a tall order for any party leader. As prime minister, Keir Starmer would have his work cut out managing the payroll vote of 150-160, especially as only around a third of the new parliamentary Labour party will have been in office before. A big Starmer win would inevitably pave the way for new Labour tribes, each with their own instincts, demands and ambitions. Blairites vs Brownites will feel like a thing of the past as new factions form around place, age and identity.

Historically, Labour’s heartlands dominated its backbenches – blocs from Scotland, Wales, and Yorkshire got together, traded votes and secured positions. Recent polls paint a different picture: Labour’s heartland is predicted to be in the north-west with more than 70 seats – perhaps a tribute to the mayoralties of Steve Rotheram in Liverpool and Andy Burnham in Manchester.

Then there’s that other mayoralty, London, which may end up not far behind with perhaps more than 60 Labour seats. In the south-east more widely, the party is tipped to gain 30 seats – much of the demographic change driven by London house prices pushing Labour voters into commuter towns. Add to this the candidates outside the capital who earned their spurs politically as councillors in London boroughs (and will therefore bring with them a more metropolitan version of progressive politics) and you have a sizeable bloc.

All in all, nearly half of Labour MPs may end up coming from London, the south-east and the north-west.