At the 2019 general election, the Tories won eight seats out of eleven in Nottinghamshire, but now the political map of the county is dominated by red. Only two of those 2019 Conservatives survived last week’s brutal cull. Both did so by running against Rishi Sunak’s version of Toryism rather than for it. Lee Anderson, having had the Tory whip removed by Sunak, got re-elected in Ashfield in the colours of Reform. Meanwhile, in nearby Newark, Robert Jenrick defied MRP surveys which predicted he was a goner by withstanding a strong Labour challenge and hanging on with a majority of more than 3,000.
Jenrick was able to do so because the Reform vote share was significantly smaller in his seat than in neighbouring ones. And that didn’t happen by accident.
When he resigned as immigration minister last December to free himself to fight for tougher policies on that issue, I
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