It’s been just over two weeks since Boris Johnson announced his resignation, and the initial flurry of early polling on his potential successor has started to coalesce. The two candidates left standing, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, will have their teams pouring over the available data. And for both sides, the numbers suggest the contest will be a punishing one.
There are three key trends which can be identified so far, and these trends pose a difficult choice for those Conservative party members voting for the new prime minister. First: Truss has enjoyed a consistent and significant lead over Sunak in all but one of the seven polls of party members conducted so far. This is unusual given the pattern which played out in the parliamentary round of the contest – Sunak was the favourite throughout balloting, yet Truss has emerged as the preferred candidate of the rank and file.
A battle has already begun over fiscal policy, and Sunak is well placed to deliver credible and damaging criticisms of Truss’s plan for tax cuts
The second trend is that the pool of undecided party members is dwindling.
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