There is a sweet spot for party leaders in which two key conditions are fulfilled. First, the leader’s party is ahead in the polls. Secondly, the leader is more popular than the party.
At the end of his first week in office, Rishi Sunak can at least be content that the latter of these conditions has been met. Ultimately though it will be the former that determines the result of the next general election. On this score there is a huge amount of lost ground still to claw back, with the Conservatives trailing Labour by an average of more than 20 points.
Polling shows that the public already regard Sunak as a better prospect as prime minister than Sir Keir Starmer, albeit only by a single point so far – a finding shared by the latest surveys from both Redfield & Wilton Strategies and BMG Research. On the specific issue of the economy, BMG shows Sunak leading Starmer by 40 points to 30; on tax he leads by 39 points to 30.
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