Marco Rubio wins tonight in Iowa — by coming third. That, I suspect, will be the on dit among the commentariat this evening in America. And it might not be wrong. According to the latest polls, Rubio is the only candidate to have gained momentum in the run up to today’s caucuses. If the polls aren’t off — big if, I know — he should emerge as the only viable ‘establishment’ candidate that can stop Trump or Cruz. He will emerge as the hope of the rational versus the irrational, the pragmatist’s choice against the stupid and crazy. At least that’s how the ‘narrative’, as strategists like to call it, could develop. (There are reasons to think President Rubio could be just as dangerous as Trump, if not more so, but that’s for another post.)
Rubio could still stun everybody and win outright tonight. The latest Des Moines Register survey suggests he is currently the most popular ‘second-choice’ among Republican Iowans, and that a large number of Republican voters remain undecided.
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