Liam Halligan

Can Leo Varadkar defy the odds to win another term as Taoiseach?

Attitudes towards the UK and Brexit could be where this election is won and lost

issue 18 January 2020

Back in October, Boris Johnson and the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar met for ‘last-ditch’ Brexit talks at a hotel on the Wirral. After nine years in power and having lost control of parliament, the Tories were in disarray. Few thought Johnson could win concessions on the Irish backstop — that perennial stumbling block, the key to securing a new withdrawal agreement with Brussels. ‘It will be very difficult,’ said Varadkar, as the Merseyside ‘wedding venue’ summit began. Yet Johnson wooed the Irish delegation, got his concessions, struck a fresh EU exit deal — and went on to clinch a dramatic general election victory.

Three months on, the tables have turned. For Varadkar’s Fine Gael party has also been in power for nine years and, having lost control of the Dáil, or Irish parliament, must now face the electoral music too. On Tuesday, the Taoiseach was forced to call a general election. Until very recently, he said he wanted to go to the polls in late spring or early summer.

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