Lebanon is teetering on the edge of a seismic political shift, facing increasing pressure both from internal factions and external military threats. Years of dominance in Lebanon’s political and military arenas have not shielded the terror group Hezbollah from devastating external blows, including the assassination of its longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah. The group’s entrenched power within the country’s political, military, and social structures has long presented a seemingly insurmountable challenge. As the group’s grip appears to weaken, a rare moment of vulnerability has emerged, one that could reshape Lebanon’s future.
Yet the question remains: will this be a fleeting opportunity or the beginning of Lebanon’s long-awaited liberation from Hezbollah’s shadow? This opens up the possibility – though by no means a certainty – of a post-Hezbollah Lebanon. The outcome will depend on a delicate interplay of local forces, regional powers, and international actors, all vying to determine what comes next for a country caught between war and peace, and between hope and despair.
The balance of power between Hezbollah and the Lebanese state is key.
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