Can Labour survive this general election?

‘There are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics,’ reflected James Callaghan in 1979, conscious he was about to be turfed out of Number 10. He didn’t know the half of it. While Margaret Thatcher’s election did herald the end of the post-war consensus, it kept the Conservative/Labour ‘mould’ intact, despite later attempts by the SDP/Liberal alliance to break it. But with a ‘Brexit election’ now called for 8 June, Labour will be fighting for its very survival.

The last great national political realignment was the 1922 general election in which Labour beat the Liberals into second place for the first time. This was largely due to shifting trade union support and the Liberals splitting into two factions led by Asquith and Lloyd George. Even after they regrouped, the Liberals never recovered. But the more recent political realignment north of the border could prove a blueprint for the Liberal Democrats regaining their position as Her Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition.

The present political conditions in England and Wales are remarkably similar to those in Scotland in the wake of the 2014 independence referendum.