When the government announces a range of tax cuts tomorrow, it has pledged to do so in a ‘sustainable’ way. What counts as sustainable, however, is going to be hotly contested – especially in light of this morning’s update from the Office for National Statistics, which saw the UK borrow more than forecast or expected last month. Public sector net borrowing came in at £14.9 billion in October – more than a billion pounds higher than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility and £4.4 billion more than was borrowed during the same month last year.
There are two ways to look at the data. The first is to note that while October’s figures were higher than expected, the annual picture is still looking better than forecast, with cumulative government borrowing for the fiscal year coming in almost £17 billion below what was forecast by the OBR in March. This is largely thanks to the record-high taxes that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will supposedly take an axe to tomorrow.
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