Can Boris Johnson now afford to scrap the National Insurance rise?

After promising not to raise National Insurance in the 2019 manifesto, the Tories are preparing to do just that in April with their new ‘health and social care levy.’ The levy is set to add £200 to the average worker’s tax bill.

Why have the Tories broken this manifesto promise? Because there was a pandemic, the government says. There was no choice.

Tory MPs are getting antsy. Backbenchers, including former cabinet ministers David Davis and Robert Jenrick, are calling for the National Insurance rise to be postponed or scrapped, as relatively high inflation and the cost-of-living crisis is creating enough of a burden on taxpayers already, even before the new levy kicks in.

Rishi Sunak may hate tax rises, but he hates unfunded spending even more – which is why he continues to support the new tax, which is estimated will raise £12 billion. He subscribes to the Thatcher/Lawson tradition of funding spending plans: not to borrow (as others in cabinet suggested the Treasury should do).