Mark Galeotti Mark Galeotti

Can a second Kursk offensive give Ukraine bargaining power?

Ukrainian soldiers take part in a training exercise (Credit: Getty images)

In theory, the Kursk salient is one of the most militarily insignificant fronts of Putin’s war on Ukraine. However, war is ultimately all about politics, and the presence of Ukrainian troops on Russian soil is sufficiently problematic for President Vladimir Putin that Kyiv has decided to deploy more troops in a bid to reverse the slow recapture of the occupied territory.

Having originally seized some 400 square miles in its lightning attack in August 2024, by last month, steady Russian pressure had shrunk Ukraine’s grasp on territory to some 180 square miles. Although Ukraine still held the town of Sudzha – about the only significant settlement in this area – the front line had crept perilously close.

Putin admitted in a meeting with regional governors that the situation there is ‘very difficult’

Nonetheless, in line with commander in chief General Olexander Syrsky’s declaration in January that his forces ‘need to prepare not only for defence, but also for offense’, the Ukrainians have in recent weeks reportedly managed to push Russian troops back six miles from Sudzha.

Mark Galeotti
Written by
Mark Galeotti

Mark Galeotti heads the consultancy Mayak Intelligence and is honorary professor at the UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies and the author of some 30 books on Russia. His latest, Forged in War: a military history of Russia from its beginnings to today, is out now.

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