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On the day that David Cameron delivered his Bloomberg speech, the 2013 address in which he committed himself to a referendum on Britain’s EU membership, I asked a close ally of his how he would avoid splitting the Tory party over the issue, given that even quiet ‘outers’ might feel obliged to vote to leave. The ally paused before replying: ‘That would be a good problem to have, as it would mean we had won the election.’
That ‘good problem’ is now here. The Tory leadership is currently involved in a no-holds-barred campaign to limit the number of MPs who speak for ‘out’. An extraordinary amount of emotional energy is being spent to stop Justice Secretary Michael Gove backing ‘out’. He was one of the intellectual driving forces behind Cameron and Osborne’s Tory modernisation project and if he votes to leave it would be a personal blow to both men. It would also make clear that ‘out’ isn’t just the preserve of those who enjoy wearing Union Jack jackets.
But even those lower down the payroll are being treated to extensive lobbying. All week they’ve had text messages from Osborne urging them to call him, though this flurry of personal attention was undermined by the fact that many MPs don’t have his number and had no idea who was texting.
No one can accuse Downing Street of complacency in this campaign. Cameron is acutely aware that this is a career-defining moment. How history will judge him depends on two things. First, whether he wins, and secondly, whether he can put the Tory party back together again afterwards. But Cameron is not interested in any clever-clever approach to the second question.
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