Whether revolutions devour their own children often depends on the ability of a
post-revolutionary government to deliver political freedom, jobs and services. Egypt is no different. If the economy opens up, then the country’s transition to democracy is likely to continue. If
not, then anything can happen.
So, which will it be? The stock exchange has reopened and is doing better than many expected. The government is bullish about growth, but it is hard to see where it will come from. Tourists, who account for a major part of the economy, are staying at home. Hotels are empty and BA is cancelling flights due to lack of passengers.
The uncertainty about Egypt’s future economic path is also deterring investors. Though fears of a lurch to the left in the near-future are probably overstated, economic liberalisation and an end to cronyism are connected in most people’s minds.
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