We often hear it said that the financial crash created populism. It is now a familiar story: that the Lehman Brothers collapse and the Great Recession exposed a shocking and colossal failure of economic stewardship in general. Ordinary families suffered, while bankers were bailed out. This led to people losing confidence in mainstream parties and established institutions. And this, in turn, fuelled the populist upsurge that upended American and British politics — with Donald Trump and Brexit being two of the results.
While this account is not wrong, I now believe that it represents only a portion of the truth. There are many other cultural and demographic trends at work. Take, for example, the way in which most cities are now thriving but most smaller towns are not. Once, the fortunes of large cities and their hinterlands were linked. Now, cities are like black holes, absorbing skilled labour and resources — but failing to emit either wealth or opportunities to surrounding areas. Compounding this trend, we have the rise of higher education which has created new cultural divisions. A degree not only ups potential salaries, but also reshapes an individual’s entire outlook.
Smaller towns tend to have lower levels of education. As a result, they’ve had a harder time competing in the new global economy. Many rural regions are facing economic stagnation, and end up losing ambitious young people who move to the cities. Populist parties — from the US and Britain to Hungary and Poland — have found their greatest support in these left-behind areas. National capitals and other large cities have become anti-populist bastions.
Such demographic changes offer a better explanation for recent political drama than any talk about the crash or falling wages. In the US presidential election, white voters without college degrees gave their overwhelming support to Donald Trump — in large part because of his strong stance against mass immigration.
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