Budget 2013: How George Osborne ran out of ideas

Before every Budget, George Osborne always seeks the advice of various MPs. He usually doesn’t heed it but it’s a good way, he thinks, to keep the troops happy. As the economic headwinds have strengthened, this advice has tended to be increasingly radical and in a recent meeting with the Free Enterprise Group of Tory MPs, the Chancellor made clear he was in no mood for it. ‘Look,’ he told them, ‘I tried radicalism in last year’s Budget, and I had blowback for it. So I’d take quite some persuading to do something radical this time.’ The MPs left with the clear impression that he is now preparing what will be, in effect, an empty Budget.

If Osborne were planning to change course before the next election, he’d have to do it now. The plan he set out three years ago had the Olympics marked down as a turning point — assuming that debt would by then be under control and he’d be mulling some celebratory tax cuts.