British politics is stuck

One of the favourite phrases of British political commentators is ‘oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them’. As with all clichés, there is a certain amount of truth to it. But both the Tories and Labour seem intent on testing the maxim to destruction: despite everything the Tories appear to be doing to ensure they lose the next election, Labour is still only ahead by single digits in the opinion polls.

No incumbent party in the western world is finding the present set of circumstances easy. The Covid shutdowns, overly loose monetary policies and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have sent inflation soaring. In France, Emmanuel Macron has no way of putting together a majority in the National Assembly. In Germany, the SPD – the leading party in the coalition government – is falling in the polls. In the US, the Democrats are likely to lose control of Congress in November.

Yet there is no getting round the fact that the Tories have done immense damage to themselves. Partygate hurt Boris Johnson badly. The no-confidence ballot has left Conservatives in the worst of all possible worlds with the leadership question unresolved one way or the other.

No. 10 has responded to the need to shore up the PM’s position in the parliamentary party with political hyperactivity. Rarely a day goes past without some idea being floated that’s designed to go down well with Johnson’s backbenchers, particularly those on the right who are more likely to have stuck with him in the confidence vote.

The latest hint from Downing Street is that additional grammar schools could soon be opened. But this suggestion is being met with cynicism even from those it’s intended to woo. One senior Conservative MP observes that new grammar schools would be hugely welcome in his seat, but he very much doubts anything will happen before the next election.