Economic growth is the third quarter was known to be depressed, but the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has this morning upped its estimate of the retreat in GDP for the third quarter, from a fall of 0.2 per cent to a drop of 0.3 per cent. That need not be too alarming in itself – September was always going to be a difficult month owing to the period of mourning for the Queen and the extra bank holiday for her funeral. The ONS has already reported its first estimate that growth in October rebounded by 0.5 per cent.
But it is the detail which is more concerning. While the service sector in the third quarter managed to inch upwards by 0.1 per cent, the production sector fell by a whacking 2.5 per cent, with all 13 sub-sectors of manufacturing falling. It is remarkable that this occurred at a time when the pound was especially weak – which should have driven growth in manufacturing by making UK exports look relatively attractive.
It is a sign that Britain’s long industrial decline continues apace, in spite of the post-pandemic drive to shorten supply chains.
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