Britain’s recession looks like it’s over

Is the UK already out of recession? It’s a question that won’t be confirmed for months, but this morning’s update from the Office for National Statistics offers a positive hint that Britain’s economic contraction will be confined to 2023. According to the ONS, the economy grew by 0.2 per cent in January – thanks largely to improved services output, which rose by 0.2 per cent, and a bounceback in wholesale and retail trade. Construction output also turned a corner, growing by 1.1 per cent after three consecutive months of contractions.

Is this the spectacular economic turnaround that Britain has been waiting for? GDP still fell 0.1 per cent in the three months to January, compared to the three months before – a hangover of last year’s repeated economic contractions, which eventually amounted to a technical recession. Moreover, 0.2 per cent growth remains difficult to boast about, not least when the latest forecast for growth in 2024 is a measly 0.8